Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · 8:25 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers: prediction & pick

When Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers meet, our simulation gives the edge to Los Angeles Chargers. Our projection has LAC favored by roughly 4.0 points, a win probability near 63%, and a projected final of ARI 20 – LAC 24.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -11.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ARI +11.5, an edge of about 7.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 44.5 points against the posted 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of ARI 20 – LAC 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.