Week 1 · Mon, Oct 12 · 12:20 AM ET

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons: prediction & pick

When Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons meet, our simulation gives the edge to Baltimore Ravens. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 3.5 points, a win probability near 61%, and a projected final of BAL 25 – ATL 22.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 4.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ATL +4.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 46.5 combined points versus a market number of 48.5. That points to the Under 48.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BAL 25 – ATL 22, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.