Week 1 · Sun, Nov 1 · 6:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills and it likes Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 1.5 points, a win probability near 55%, and a projected final of BAL 23 – BUF 25.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -2.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is BAL +2.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 48.0 combined points versus a market number of 51.5. That points to the Under 51.5, with about 3.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BAL 23 – BUF 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.