Week 1 · Sun, Sep 27 · 8:25 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys: prediction & pick

Dallas Cowboys host Baltimore Ravens in a matchup where the model sides with Baltimore Ravens. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 1.5 points, a win probability near 55%, and a projected final of BAL 24 – DAL 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at 2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is DAL +2.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 47.0 combined points versus a market number of 51.5. That points to the Under 51.5, with about 4.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BAL 24 – DAL 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.