Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · 5:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts: prediction & pick

Indianapolis Colts host Baltimore Ravens in a matchup where the model sides with Baltimore Ravens. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 4.5 points, a win probability near 64%, and a projected final of BAL 25 – IND 21.

Against the spread

The market opened at 3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is BAL -3.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 46.0 points against the posted 49.5. That points to the Under 49.5, with about 3.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BAL 25 – IND 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.