NFLComputerPicksBuffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos: prediction & pick
The model has run the numbers on Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos and it likes Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 2.5 points, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of BUF 24 – DEN 22.
Against the spread
Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is BUF -1.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.
Total (over/under)
On the total, the model projects around 46.0 combined points versus a market number of 46.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.
The projection
Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BUF 24 – DEN 22, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.
Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 56% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.