NFLComputerPicksBuffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins: prediction & pick
Buffalo Bills visit Miami Dolphins with the model leaning toward Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of BUF 26 – MIA 23.
Against the spread
Where the book sits at 7.5 on MIA, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is MIA +7.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.
Total (over/under)
For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 48.5 points against the posted 47.5. That points to the Over 47.5, with about 1.0 points of over edge.
The projection
Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BUF 26 – MIA 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.
Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.