NFLComputerPicksBuffalo Bills vs New York Jets: prediction & pick
The model has run the numbers on Buffalo Bills at New York Jets and it likes Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 4.5 points, a win probability near 64%, and a projected final of BUF 25 – NYJ 21.
Against the spread
Where the book sits at 7 on NYJ, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is NYJ +7, an edge of about 2.5 points in our favor.
Total (over/under)
For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 45.5 points against the posted 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.
The projection
Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of BUF 25 – NYJ 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.
Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.