Week 1 · Sun, Oct 11 · 8:25 PM ET

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers: prediction & pick

When Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet, our simulation gives the edge to Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 6.0 points, a win probability near 69%, and a projected final of CHI 20 – GB 26.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -3 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is GB -3, an edge of about 3.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.5 combined points versus a market number of 49.5. That points to the Under 49.5, with about 4.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of CHI 20 – GB 26, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 74% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.