Week 1 · Tue, Nov 24 · 1:15 AM ET

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders: prediction & pick

When Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Commanders meet, our simulation gives the edge to Washington Commanders. Our projection has WAS favored by roughly 0.5 points, a win probability near 52%, and a projected final of CIN 24 – WAS 24.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at 1.5 on WAS, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is WAS +1.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 47.5 points against the posted 52.5. That points to the Under 52.5, with about 5.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of CIN 24 – WAS 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 80% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.