Week 1 · Sun, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens: prediction & pick

Cleveland Browns visit Baltimore Ravens with the model leaning toward Baltimore Ravens. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 11.5 points, a win probability near 82%, and a projected final of CLE 16 – BAL 28.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -10 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is BAL -10, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 44.0 combined points versus a market number of 43.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of CLE 16 – BAL 28, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.