Week 1 · Mon, Oct 19 · 12:20 AM ET

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers: prediction & pick

Dallas Cowboys visit Green Bay Packers with the model leaning toward Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of DAL 22 – GB 25.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -3 on GB, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is GB -3, an edge of about 0.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 47.0 points against the posted 51.5. That points to the Under 51.5, with about 4.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DAL 22 – GB 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.