Week 1 · Sun, Oct 11 · 8:05 PM ET

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers: prediction & pick

Denver Broncos visit Los Angeles Chargers with the model leaning toward Los Angeles Chargers. Our projection has LAC favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of DEN 20 – LAC 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is LAC -2.5, an edge of about 0.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 43.5 points while the book has hung 44.5. That points to the Under 44.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DEN 20 – LAC 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 56% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.