Week 1 · Sun, Oct 11 · 8:25 PM ET

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals and it likes Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 2.5 points, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of DET 25 – ARI 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at 8.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is ARI +8.5, an edge of about 6.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 48.0 points against the posted 48.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DET 25 – ARI 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 86% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.