Week 1 · Sun, Dec 6 · 6:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons: prediction & pick

When Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons meet, our simulation gives the edge to Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 2.0 points, a win probability near 56%, and a projected final of DET 25 – ATL 23.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 3.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ATL +3.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 48.0 points against the posted 48.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of DET 25 – ATL 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.