Week 1 · Fri, Dec 25 · 6:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

When Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears meet, our simulation gives the edge to Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 2.0 points, a win probability near 56%, and a projected final of GB 24 – CHI 22.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is GB +1.5, an edge of about 3.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 45.5 points against the posted 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of GB 24 – CHI 22, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.