Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions: prediction & pick

Green Bay Packers visit Detroit Lions with the model leaning toward Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of GB 23 – DET 26.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -2.5 on DET, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is DET -2.5, an edge of about 0.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 49.0 points against the posted 50.5. That points to the Under 50.5, with about 1.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of GB 23 – DET 26, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.