Week 1 · Thu, Nov 26 · 1:00 AM ET

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams and it likes Los Angeles Rams. Our projection has LAR favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of GB 23 – LAR 24.

Against the spread

The market opened at -4.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is GB +4.5, an edge of about 3.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 46.5 combined points versus a market number of 48.5. That points to the Under 48.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of GB 23 – LAR 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.