Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints: prediction & pick

Green Bay Packers visit New Orleans Saints with the model leaning toward Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of GB 24 – NO 21.

Against the spread

The market opened at 4.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NO +4.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 45.5 points against the posted 45.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of GB 24 – NO 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.