Week 1 · Tue, Jan 5 · 1:15 AM ET

Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers: prediction & pick

Houston Texans visit Green Bay Packers with the model leaning toward Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 2.5 points, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of HOU 21 – GB 24.

Against the spread

The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is GB -2.5, an edge of about 0.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.0 combined points versus a market number of 42.5. That points to the Over 42.5, with about 2.5 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of HOU 21 – GB 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.