Week 1 · Fri, Dec 25 · 1:15 AM ET

Houston Texans vs Philadelphia Eagles: prediction & pick

Houston Texans visit Philadelphia Eagles with the model leaning toward Philadelphia Eagles. Our projection has PHI favored by roughly 5.5 points, a win probability near 67%, and a projected final of HOU 20 – PHI 25.

Against the spread

The market opened at -2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is PHI -2.5, an edge of about 3.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 44.5 points while the book has hung 37.5. That points to the Over 37.5, with about 7.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of HOU 20 – PHI 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.