Week 1 · Sun, Jan 3 · 6:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns and it likes Indianapolis Colts. Our projection has IND favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of IND 22 – CLE 21.

Against the spread

The market opened at 2.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is CLE +2.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 42.5 points against the posted 43.5. That points to the Under 43.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of IND 22 – CLE 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.