Week 1 · Fri, Nov 20 · 1:15 AM ET

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans: prediction & pick

Indianapolis Colts visit Houston Texans with the model leaning toward Houston Texans. Our projection has HOU favored by roughly 5.5 points, a win probability near 67%, and a projected final of IND 19 – HOU 25.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -5.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is HOU -5.5, an edge of about 0.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 43.5 combined points versus a market number of 45.5. That points to the Under 45.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of IND 19 – HOU 25, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.