Week 1 · Sun, Oct 25 · 5:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings: prediction & pick

When Indianapolis Colts and Minnesota Vikings meet, our simulation gives the edge to Minnesota Vikings. Our projection has MIN favored by roughly 4.5 points, a win probability near 64%, and a projected final of IND 20 – MIN 24.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -2.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is MIN -2.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.5 points against the posted 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 3.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of IND 20 – MIN 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 68% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.