Week 1 · Sun, Dec 13 · 6:00 PM ET

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles: prediction & pick

Indianapolis Colts visit Philadelphia Eagles with the model leaning toward Philadelphia Eagles. Our projection has PHI favored by roughly 9.0 points, a win probability near 76%, and a projected final of IND 18 – PHI 27.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -5.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is PHI -5.5, an edge of about 3.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 45.5 points against the posted 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of IND 18 – PHI 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.