Week 1 · Sun, Dec 6 · 6:00 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

Jacksonville Jaguars visit Chicago Bears with the model leaning toward Chicago Bears. Our projection has CHI favored by roughly 2.0 points, a win probability near 56%, and a projected final of JAX 21 – CHI 23.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -2.5 on CHI, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is JAX +2.5, an edge of about 0.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 44.0 combined points versus a market number of 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 3.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of JAX 21 – CHI 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.