Week 1 · Tue, Nov 17 · 1:15 AM ET

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens: prediction & pick

Los Angeles Chargers visit Baltimore Ravens with the model leaning toward Baltimore Ravens. Our projection has BAL favored by roughly 6.0 points, a win probability near 69%, and a projected final of LAC 20 – BAL 26.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -3.5 on BAL, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is BAL -3.5, an edge of about 2.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 45.5 combined points versus a market number of 47.5. That points to the Under 47.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LAC 20 – BAL 26, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.