Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills: prediction & pick

When Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills meet, our simulation gives the edge to Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 5.5 points, a win probability near 67%, and a projected final of LAC 20 – BUF 26.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -3 on BUF, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is BUF -3, an edge of about 2.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 46.0 combined points versus a market number of 48.5. That points to the Under 48.5, with about 2.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LAC 20 – BUF 26, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.