Week 1 · Sun, Oct 4 · 8:25 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks: prediction & pick

Seattle Seahawks host Los Angeles Chargers in a matchup where the model sides with Seattle Seahawks. Our projection has SEA favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of LAC 22 – SEA 23.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -3 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is LAC +3, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 44.0 points while the book has hung 45.5. That points to the Under 45.5, with about 1.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LAC 22 – SEA 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.