Week 1 · Sun, Nov 1 · 6:00 PM ET

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets and it likes New York Jets. Our projection has NYJ favored by roughly 3.5 points, a win probability near 61%, and a projected final of LV 20 – NYJ 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NYJ -1.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.0 points against the posted 40.5. That points to the Over 40.5, with about 2.5 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LV 20 – NYJ 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.