Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers: prediction & pick

When Las Vegas Raiders and San Francisco 49ers meet, our simulation gives the edge to San Francisco 49ers. Our projection has SF favored by roughly 9.5 points, a win probability near 77%, and a projected final of LV 17 – SF 27.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -8.5 on SF, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is SF -8.5, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 44.0 combined points versus a market number of 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 2.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of LV 17 – SF 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.