NFLComputerPicksMiami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills: prediction & pick
Miami Dolphins visit Buffalo Bills with the model leaning toward Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 7.0 points, a win probability near 71%, and a projected final of MIA 21 – BUF 28.
Against the spread
Where the book sits at -11.5 on BUF, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is MIA +11.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.
Total (over/under)
Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 48.5 points while the book has hung 47.5. That points to the Over 47.5, with about 1.0 points of over edge.
The projection
Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIA 21 – BUF 28, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.
Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.