Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers: prediction & pick

Green Bay Packers host Miami Dolphins in a matchup where the model sides with Green Bay Packers. Our projection has GB favored by roughly 5.0 points, a win probability near 66%, and a projected final of MIA 22 – GB 27.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -10.5 on GB, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is MIA +10.5, an edge of about 5.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 48.0 points while the book has hung 45.5. That points to the Over 45.5, with about 2.5 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIA 22 – GB 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 83% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.