Week 1 · Sun, Sep 20 · 5:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

Minnesota Vikings visit Chicago Bears with the model leaning toward Minnesota Vikings. Our projection has MIN favored by roughly 0.5 points, a win probability near 52%, and a projected final of MIN 22 – CHI 21.

Against the spread

The market opened at -3.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is MIN +3.5, an edge of about 4.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 43.0 combined points versus a market number of 45.5. That points to the Under 45.5, with about 2.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIN 22 – CHI 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 74% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.