Week 1 · Sun, Jan 3 · 6:00 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets and it likes Minnesota Vikings. Our projection has MIN favored by roughly 1.0 points, a win probability near 53%, and a projected final of MIN 22 – NYJ 21.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 3.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is NYJ +3.5, an edge of about 2.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 42.5 combined points versus a market number of 39.5. That points to the Over 39.5, with about 3.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of MIN 22 – NYJ 21, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 68% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.