Week 1 · Sun, Nov 15 · 2:30 PM ET

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions: prediction & pick

Detroit Lions host New England Patriots in a matchup where the model sides with Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 8.0 points, a win probability near 74%, and a projected final of NE 19 – DET 27.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is DET -1.5, an edge of about 6.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 46.5 points against the posted 48.5. That points to the Under 48.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 19 – DET 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.