Week 1 · Sun, Sep 27 · 5:00 PM ET

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars: prediction & pick

New England Patriots visit Jacksonville Jaguars with the model leaning toward Jacksonville Jaguars. Our projection has JAX favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of NE 20 – JAX 23.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is JAX -1.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.5 points against the posted 45.5. That points to the Under 45.5, with about 2.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 20 – JAX 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.