Week 1 · Tue, Dec 22 · 1:15 AM ET

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs and it likes Kansas City Chiefs. Our projection has KC favored by roughly 9.5 points, a win probability near 77%, and a projected final of NE 18 – KC 27.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -2.5 on KC, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is KC -2.5, an edge of about 7.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 44.5 points against the posted 45.5. That points to the Under 45.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 18 – KC 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.