New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers: prediction & pick

When New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers meet, our simulation gives the edge to Los Angeles Chargers. Our projection has LAC favored by roughly 5.5 points, a win probability near 67%, and a projected final of NE 19 – LAC 24.

Against the spread

The market opened at -1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is LAC -1.5, an edge of about 4.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.0 points against the posted 45.5. That points to the Under 45.5, with about 2.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NE 19 – LAC 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 74% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.