Week 1 · Sun, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

Chicago Bears host New Orleans Saints in a matchup where the model sides with Chicago Bears. Our projection has CHI favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of NO 20 – CHI 23.

Against the spread

The market opened at -6.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is NO +6.5, an edge of about 3.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.5 points against the posted 46.5. That points to the Under 46.5, with about 3.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NO 20 – CHI 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 71% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.