Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · 5:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions and it likes Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 8.0 points, a win probability near 74%, and a projected final of NO 20 – DET 28.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -7 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is DET -7, an edge of about 1.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 47.0 points while the book has hung 49.5. That points to the Under 49.5, with about 2.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NO 20 – DET 28, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 65% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.