Week 1 · Sun, Dec 20 · 9:05 PM ET

New York Jets vs Arizona Cardinals: prediction & pick

New York Jets visit Arizona Cardinals with the model leaning toward Arizona Cardinals. Our projection has ARI favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of NYJ 21 – ARI 24.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of 1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is ARI +1.5, an edge of about 4.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 44.0 points against the posted 41.5. That points to the Over 41.5, with about 2.5 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NYJ 21 – ARI 24, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 77% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.