New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills: prediction & pick

New York Jets visit Buffalo Bills with the model leaning toward Buffalo Bills. Our projection has BUF favored by roughly 8.5 points, a win probability near 75%, and a projected final of NYJ 19 – BUF 27.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -10 on BUF, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is NYJ +10, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 45.5 points against the posted 43.5. That points to the Over 43.5, with about 2.0 points of over edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NYJ 19 – BUF 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 62% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.