Week 1 · Sun, Oct 4 · 5:00 PM ET

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears: prediction & pick

The model has run the numbers on New York Jets at Chicago Bears and it likes Chicago Bears. Our projection has CHI favored by roughly 2.5 points, a win probability near 58%, and a projected final of NYJ 20 – CHI 23.

Against the spread

Where the book sits at -8.5 on CHI, our simulation disagrees by enough to make this a live spread play. The recommendation is NYJ +8.5, an edge of about 6.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

For the over/under, our pace-adjusted projection lands near 43.0 points against the posted 45.5. That points to the Under 45.5, with about 2.5 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of NYJ 20 – CHI 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 86% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.