Week 1 · Mon, Nov 2 · 1:20 AM ET

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders: prediction & pick

Washington Commanders host Philadelphia Eagles in a matchup where the model sides with Philadelphia Eagles. Our projection has PHI favored by roughly 3.0 points, a win probability near 60%, and a projected final of PHI 25 – WAS 22.

Against the spread

The market opened at 1.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is PHI -1.5, an edge of about 1.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 46.5 points while the book has hung 46.5. That's too tight to bet with confidence — the total is best left alone here.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of PHI 25 – WAS 22, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 59% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.