San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys: prediction & pick

Dallas Cowboys host San Francisco 49ers in a matchup where the model sides with San Francisco 49ers. Our projection has SF favored by roughly 0.5 points, a win probability near 52%, and a projected final of SF 23 – DAL 23.

Against the spread

Comparing our projected margin to the posted line of -1.5 for the home team surfaces a gap the model wants to bet. The recommendation is SF +1.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 45.5 points while the book has hung 52.5. That points to the Under 52.5, with about 7.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of SF 23 – DAL 23, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 88% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.