Week 1 · Sun, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions: prediction & pick

Detroit Lions host Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup where the model sides with Detroit Lions. Our projection has DET favored by roughly 5.0 points, a win probability near 66%, and a projected final of TB 22 – DET 27.

Against the spread

The market opened at -4.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is DET -4.5, an edge of about 0.5 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

On the total, the model projects around 48.5 combined points versus a market number of 49.5. That points to the Under 49.5, with about 1.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of TB 22 – DET 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Lean at 56% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.