Week 1 · Sun, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM ET

Tennessee Titans vs Dallas Cowboys: prediction & pick

Dallas Cowboys host Tennessee Titans in a matchup where the model sides with Dallas Cowboys. Our projection has DAL favored by roughly 8.5 points, a win probability near 75%, and a projected final of TEN 18 – DAL 27.

Against the spread

The market opened at -6.5 on the home side, but our projected margin is far enough from that number to flag value. The recommendation is DAL -6.5, an edge of about 2.0 points in our favor.

Total (over/under)

Totals-wise, the simulation expects roughly 44.5 points while the book has hung 48.5. That points to the Under 48.5, with about 4.0 points of under edge.

The projection

Running the matchup through the model produces a projected final score of TEN 18 – DAL 27, built from each team's power rating, home-field advantage, and pace. See how the model works for the full methodology.

Betting involves risk. Lines move — always confirm the current number at your sportsbook before betting. 21+ where legal.

Bottom line: the model rates this a Strong play at 74% confidence. As always, shop for the best available number and size the bet to your bankroll — a single game never makes or breaks a season.